Transcripts

Bob Seidensticker:
I say that technology is changing no faster today than it has since the Industrial Revolution.

Bob Seidensticker, author of the book, Future Hype…

We could take airplanes as an example.We saw explosive growth in the early 1900's from biplanes made of canvas and wood all the way through jet airplanes. And it seemed obvious that supersonic planes would continue the progress. And yet the Concorde supersonic plane limped along for twenty-five years until finally being put out of service just recently. And we fly today at the same speed as we did at the dawn of the jet age fifty years ago.

And airplanes are just one example…

We can find other examples of this exponential explosive growth initially followed by a slow down in maturity in electricity and telephones and the pace in the Internet will fade away. This is my prediction, in twenty years or so as essential things like concrete or electricity or antibiotics but just not in the forefront.

So, when it comes to all the talk about technology and computers and the Internet, Bob's advice…

Relax resist the alarmist claims that technology is changing faster and faster because it isn't-that society will be changed beyond all recognition because it won't be. Numbers two beware of predictions. Most predictions are wrong and here's the surprising thing, most new products fail. Let someone else buy that version 1.0 product.

At somethingyoushouldknow.net I'm Mike Carruthers and that's Something You Should Know.